Last week: 10-6
Total: 53-47-4
When you’re hot, you’re hot. 10-6 last week to bring my record to 53-47-4 on the year. That’s 100 picks (minus the 4 pushes), hitting at 53%. That’s profitable in this business. Cold hard cash in all of your pockets.
The year didn’t start great. We pushed through to get where we are now. Don’t worry it’s only up from here (I hope). These 6 packs just get better and better every week. I’m struggling to select only 6 to write about. That’s good for you all because this 6 pack may turn into a suitcase again. Let’s see what the Sixer has in store for us this week.
1. Favorite Seasonal Beer: TCU @ Texas Tech -2.5
For me, Shiner Cheer is the go-to seasonal beer. It’s even better that we are at that time of year. But you look forward to this beer. You wait for it to come back. You cherish it when you have it, but greatly miss it when it’s gone. Who does that sound like?
Behren Morton is back!!!! Time to turn the season around. I don’t know if he is 100% but he will get the job done against TCU. Plus, Tahj will run all this weak TCU defense. Don’t overthink this, take Texas Tech.
Pick: Texas Tech -2.5
2. Water and an Aspirin: Kansas @ Iowa State -2.5
Sometimes, we get carried away and have one too many. That can happen when the 6 pack becomes a suitcase. Well, the next morning you need water and aspirin in the worst type of way. That hangover hits you real quick. Kansas will learn that this week.
Sorry, not this time Kansas. Iowa State is an underrated team, and Kansas is slightly overstated after a big win at home against Oklahoma. I also have a fun tidbit I saw. After achieving a top 20 upset as a Touchdown or more underdog, conference underdogs playing the following week are 28-51-3 (35.4%) ATS, including 13-33-1 (28.3%) when the upset occurred at home. That means bet Iowas State heavy. This is my favorite pick this week.
Pick: Iowa State -2.5
3. Yuengling: LSU @ Alabama -3
Yuengling is the oldest brewery in the United States. The yinzers in Pennsylvania have been drinking this for years. It has been around so long that many people just stopped thinking about it. Craft beers became a craze, and big brands have taken over as well. Then Yuengling made a power move; they teamed with Coors to come out west. Now, the people of Texas are enjoying it and putting a little bit of respect on their name. Don’t be on the side that slept on this beer; they were a wagon and still are a wagon. Alabama has been a wagon under Nick Saban. Now, we are seemingly discounting them a bit because of how great Georgia has been. Do you know who was the last quarterback to beat Nick Saban twice in a row?
Drew Brees at Purdue. Ya, that Drew Brees holding the Vince Lombardi trophy. It won’t happen here with Jayden Daniels. This is still Saban. This is still Alabama. Making Alabama only a 3 point favorite is beyond disrespectful to this team. These two teams are not equal on a neutral field. Take Alabama to cover the 3.
Pick: Alabama -3
4. American Adjunct Lager: Army @ Air Force -18.5
Alright, get your name-brand affordable beers out here. We have another service academy game. Do your civic duty and grab a suitcase of PBR and enjoy this. I’m betting this strictly on the spot. I don’t love it, but I have to pull the trigger. Let’s start with the first stat that we all love to recite. The under in games involving 2 service academy teams is 44-10-1 ATS since 2005. Well, I also have more numbers for you. Service academies catching over 2 touchdowns are 42-24-2 (63.6%) since 2005, covering the spread by an average of 5 points per game. In those games, service academies are 17-6-1 (73.9%) ATS when the total closes at 48 or less.Those are some great numbers to follow. Because of that, I’m going to plug my nose and take Army and the under.
Pick: Army +18.5 & Under 32.5
5. Seltzer: UCLA @ Arizona +3
Seltzers are enjoyable and easy to drink. You can throw more than a few back before you even realize it. They always sneak up on you. Here’s the other thing, you know that. They sneak up on you all the time, and you still let it happen. How many times does it have to happen for you to learn to keep an eye on the seltzers. That reminds me a lot of these Arizona Wildcats. How many upsets do they need to get before we start realizing who they are. Since 2005, Arizona has been the most profitable home dog at 18-6-1 ATS, covering the spread by an average of 10 points per game. We keep letting this team sleep on us. I won’t do that here. Plus, I still think this UCLA team is fraudulent. Give me the 3 points at home with the Wildcats.
Pick: Arizona +3
6. Fireball Shot: Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State +6
Bedlam. Chaos. Rivalry. This one will be crazy. Pull the fireball out; it’s time to choose danger. This night will get wild, and you will want to be a part of the action. Start throwing back the shots; it’s the last Big 12 Bedlam. All of that being said, this game scares me. This is the perfect spot for Oklahoma, following that loss at Kansas. I don’t care about that. I have been telling you all year long that this Oklahoma State team is being slept on. I have also felt this Oklahoma team was not as good as their record shows. We found that out in the Kansas game. The crowd will be electric in this final Big 12 Bedlam game. Oklahoma State will ride Ollie Gordon to a win at home in this game, I’ll take the 6 with the Pokes.
Pick: Oklahoma State +6
Well, there you go. 7 picks in the initial 6 pack. Don’t worry, there are a lot more games and spots that I love this week. This might become a suitcase real quick. You degenerates, enjoy the extra picks I’m stuffing in this 6 pack below. It’s your lucky day, Locky is dropping a 30 rack. Remember, every pick is a winner until it’s not.
8. Fresno State -2.5
9. Ole Miss -3
10. Missouri @ Georgia over 54.5
11. Troy -4.5
12. Arkansas +6
13. Clemson +3.5
14. South Carolina -15.5
15. Iowa -5
16. Iowa NW over 30.5
17. Baylor -3
18. UCF -3.5
19. Middle Tennessee +3.5
20. Miami -4.5
21. Syracuse -2.5
22. Texas -4
23. USC +3.5
24. UCONN +36
25. Georgia Tech +3
26. Coastal Carolina PK
27. LA Tech +17
28. Kentucky -4
29. Rutgers +19
30. SMU Rice over 59
